October job growth stagnates nationally, including the restaurant industry

Although September was a strong hiring month for restaurants, October job growth has stalled both nationally and for the restaurant industry. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate was 4.1% for the second month in a row. It has remained above 4% since May 2024, and has been slowly creeping up past the pre-pandemic unemployment rate of 3.5% over time. 

In October, the restaurant and bar industries added 3,700 jobs, with the employment rate at 3.7%. According to updated data, the restaurant and bar industries had a seasonally adjusted employment rate that was more than 10 times higher in September, with 39,300 jobs added. This altered data was cut down by nearly half from preliminary reports last month that suggested job growth of nearly 70,000 in September. August job growth was also retroactively adjusted, and together, August and September hiring trends were adjusted downward by nearly 65,000 jobs.

September through November is usually a peak hiring season for the foodservice industry as operators gear up for a busy holiday season. It is possible that restaurants will continue to hire more employees in November as peak holiday season approaches.

According to Alice Cheng, CEO and founder of Culinary Agents, the 10% bump in foodservice industry job openings last month was surprising, and this month’s shift might be a return to normal for the restaurant industry, particularly for independent restaurants:

“We're starting to see more normalization in the trends of hiring after seeing an early spike of hiring in late summer and into early fall, which was a bit of an odd thing to see,” Cheng said. “Then, once it reached the October timeframe, which is always the highest peak for fall hiring, historically, it started dipping this year. This is an indication that the industry has normalized, and that [restaurants] are planning better.”

The National Restaurant Association noted that despite the adjustments for the negative, as well as the uneven hiring trends over the past several months, the employment trendline for the industry remains “generally positive,” and hiring is still above the pre-pandemic peak of 12.3 million jobs in February 2020.

Looking on a more granular level, the full-service restaurant industry has the longest way to go to reach pre-pandemic levelsand is still 4% below employment levels in February 2020. Meanwhile, the limited-service segment is hiring at 3% above pre-pandemic levels. The segment that seems to be doing the best right now is the snack and non-alcoholic beverage concepts, which are currently 17% above February 2020 levels, and correlates with the overall growth and success within these sectors.

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