2013 restaurant wine price forecast: Stability

On tap: More profit from wine

Raising a glass to American-made wines

•  The general financial condition of the wine industry continues to improve at a slow and steady pace.

•  2012 produced the rarest of events: large yields coincident with outstanding quality across all Western US growing regions.   

•  Sales growth in fine wine is predicted to be in the range of 4-8 percent in 2013, which is a lower rate of growth than in the previous three years.

•  Wine businesses expect to increase bottle prices slightly; however, SVB believes that will prove difficult in 2013.

•  Winery gross and net profit will be negatively impacted in 2013 due to higher grape costs.

•  Inventory is balanced; yet grape planting will be restrained compared to the same point in prior cycles.

•  The purchase volume of wine grapes and grape pricing will largely be flat compared to 2012.

•  Mergers and acquisitions of vineyards and wineries will continue at a record pace in 2013.

•  Massive bulk imports will continue to dominate the lowest price point wine categories.

•  Planting in grape growing regions is and will continue to be more restrained versus prior cycles.

•  Direct-to-consumer sales will continue as the largest growth channel for most wineries.